Ukraine and the International Nuclear Order
After only one month into the Trump Administration has revealed its abiding strategic incompetence and malignity in foreign affairs. Although every area that Trump has touched could come under this rubric; this article focuses on Ukraine, particularly the nuclear dimension of the war. Readers will remember that from the beginning of the war Putin and his toadies have successfully brandished the nuclear threat to deter the West from intervening on behalf of NATO. Indeed, before the war the Russian Navy sailed into the North Atlantic to interdict ties between the U.S, and Europe and to conduct exercises in the Mediterranean to threaten NATO forces there and isolate Ukraine..
Since then these nuclear threats, which successfully impeded but not prevented Western assistance to Ukraine, have continued up to the present. But beyond Moscow’s threats the global nuclear ramifications of this war have manifested themselves clearly. The Russo-Iran rapprochement and bilateral treaty of January 2025 raise the specter of a Russian transfer of missile and/or nuclear technology to Iran. Russia has already transferred space launch vehicle technology to Iran that could allow both countries “to share critical missile technology, including advanced liquid rocket engines, that could be repurposed for intercontinental ballistic missiles.’ Russia could also help Iran improve Iran’s nuclear weapon design and develop miniaturized warheads for its missile systems. Similarly, the Russo-North Korean treaty and alliance have raised similar proliferation fears and contributed to the growing popularity of the idea of an independent South Korean and Japanese nuclear weapon. Russia has already, shared “advanced space and satellite technology” with North Korea while top experts and diplomats believe that Pyongyang “anticipates Russian technical assistance for nuclear and missile programs in exchange.”
These threats to the international order and vital U.S. interests are bad enough. But by its reckless and mean-spirited policies towards Ukraine the Trump Administration has foolishly and heedlessly reopened the prospect of further nuclearization of Europe. Trump and his team have so far expressly ruled out either Ukraine’s inclusion in NATO or the provision of American troops as part of a potential peace operation after any possible cease-fire in Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. Meanwhile Ukrainian President Zelensky said that 200,000 troops are necessary to police the agreement and safeguard the lines between Russian and Ukrainian forces. However, in all of Europe perhaps 40-50,000 troops could be deployed for this mission and even that number faces serious difficulties. Moreover, since they would be operating under a UN mandate Russia could at any time terminate this peace operation.
Since the real problem here is that Russia believes Ukraine cannot exist as an independent state and is really part of Russia, has conducted a genocidal war there, and absent a serious defense there will do so again, it appears that no peace operation can suffice to preserve any cease-fire agreement. Consequently if Ukraine is debarred from NATO the only effective security guarantee open to it becomes nuclear weapons as Zelensky has warned. However, at the slight4est sign of a Ukrainian nuclear program Russia will attack again as no Russian government will stand for a nuclear Ukraine. Thus, by a process of elimination and a rational policy process which clearly is absent in Trump world, inclusion of Ukraine in NATO now, despite Moscow’s objections becomes the safest, cheapest, and most credible answer to Russian aggression.
But because of the ignorance, recklessness and strategic incompetence of the administration and its leaders Trump, Vice-President Vance, Secretary of Defense Hegseth, and Secretary of State Rubio, it is clear that nobody gave any attention to this dimension of the war and why the only viable answer to Russian aggression is Ukraine’s imminent membership in NATO. Indeed Hegseth has publicly mused about providing Ukraine nuclear weapons, an outcome that would surely trigger a Russian attack, and a statement indicating that he does not have the faintest idea of what this war is about or about U.S. strategic nuclear policy. Worse yet, European leaders have quickly picked up on this defect in Washington’s policy now that they realize that this administration neither knows, nor cares, nor can think seriously about European security.
Thus, Poland now wants to participate in NATO’s nuclear sharing program and host nuclear weapons on its territory, a sure red flag to Russia comparable to a nuclear Ukraine. These are things that no Russian government, even possibly a liberalizing one, can tolerate since nuclear weapon states will then be on their borders. Even more disturbing is the fact that Friedrich Merz, Germany’s likely next Prime Minister, is now urging the UK and France to share their nuclear weapons with Germany so that Europe has its own autonomous nuclear umbrella. Since the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) had at its core the shared US-Soviet decision to prevent German nuclearization, something that terrified Moscow given the loss of 27,000,000 million Soviet citizens in World War II, opening this pandora’s box will help drive a truck through the NPT and the global nuclear order.
e.g. despite ongoing assurances from Washington to Japan and South Korea and their commitment to stand united against North Korea, leaders, elites, and ordinary citizens there can observe just how cavalierly Washington walked away from its European commitments leaving states like the UK to consider or even build new nuclear weapons in order to defend themselves.
Since Washington still has no policy for North Korea, these European developments and the incessant Chinese and North Korean nuclear buildups may well lead policymakers there to follow Europe and acquire their own deterrents.
These trends are all the logical outcome of the ignorant, reckless, incompetent, and mean-spirited policies of the Trump Administration. Trump may fantasize about the great powers reducing their nuclear arsenals and defense spending by 50% but in the meantime, like Nero, a plausible model for his presidency, he is fiddling while Rome burns.
Dr. Stephen J. Blank is a Senior Fellow at Foreign Policy Research Institute. He is an internationally renowned expert on Russian and Chinese defense policy. He is the author of “Light from the East: Russia’s Quest for Great Power Status in Asia” (Taylor & Francis, 2023). He was a Professor of National Security Studies at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College.