Trump Blinks
After demonstrating moral and strategic clarity by confronting Iran, Donald Trump folded on a core belief he has held for more than 20 years. To describe the disastrous Memorandum of Understanding signed Wednesday night as a victory, Trump moved the goalposts, then looked at the future through a funhouse mirror.
Trump has shown more integrity and grit in the Middle East than any other president. He restored America’s relationships with Saudi Arabia and the UAE; created a genuine partnership with Israel and expanded it through the Abraham Accords; opened an American era in Syria and Lebanon; and, with Operations Hammer and Epic Fury, derailed Iran’s nuclear program and severely degraded its military capabilities. He was the best friend that Israel – and the Arab states – ever had.
Then, suddenly, his goals shifted. Though he undoubtedly intends America’s friends in the Middle East no harm, Trump abandoned Epic Fury in a “no cost too high” mad dash for a deal. He wanted it in the worst way; and what he negotiated will undo his accomplishments in Iran and soon leave it free to threaten the Middle East and the world with far more powerful weapons. The premature end of Epic Fury shows that foreign-funded and influenced intersectional leftists have hollowed out America’s power, and that Trump lacked the steadfastness needed to overcome the drop in his approval ratings.
The MOU is a combination of immediately binding provisions, and an outline for a final agreement to be reached within 60 days, though the parties may repeatedly extend that period. Iran is in no rush, and Trump is unlikely to end negotiations, particularly before the midterms, since that would require a resumption of the blockade or combat operations.
“The current Iranian leadership are very rational people. They are nice to deal with, they are strong and smart people. They are not radicalized, and they are looking to help their country,” Trump said on Tuesday of leaders who he referred to as “wicked extremists” when announcing the commencement of Epic Fury.
Like Obama’s much-maligned (by Trump, among others) deal, the MOU contemplates no limits on Iran’s ballistic missile program or support for its terror network. The parties will immediately cease hostilities, and Israel, which is not a party, is directed to permanently terminate defending itself in Lebanon against Hezbollah’s aggression. The U.S. will immediately end the blockade, and Iran agrees to allow ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz “with no charge for 60 days only.” Iran, which did not previously charge ships transiting the Strait, likely will begin doing so after that period.
Iran commits to “never procure or develop” nuclear weapons, and agrees that its enriched uranium will, at a minimum, be down-blended on site. Other issues regarding Iran’s “nuclear needs” will be settled in the final agreement. It is expected that Iran will continue its civilian nuclear program, ensuring that it remains capable of weaponization. Until a final agreement is signed, “Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program … and the United States will not deploy additional forces in the region.” The U.S. undertakes to remove its forces from the “proximity of Iran” within 30 days after a final agreement is signed.
Iran will have all the funds it requires to rebuild its military and resume its terror campaign. Regardless of whether the final deal is ever reached, it may immediately resume oil exports and the U.S. will waive related sanctions. The U.S. also will immediately make “fully available” to any beneficiary designated by Iran all frozen and restricted funds, estimated to be at least $24 billion. Following execution of a final agreement, the U.S. will phase out all remaining sanctions and implement a “mutually agreed plan” with “at least” $300 billon for Iran’s “reconstruction and economic development.”
The MOU is silent about verification and enforcement. While the final agreement may describe these mechanisms, Iran has shown it can withstand stringent sanctions and 15,000 bombs and missiles. There is little risk that a future president would repeat, let alone exceed, that level of force. Iran’s compliance is discretionary.
From the inception of Operation Epic Fury on Feb. 28, 2026, Trump was clear about the goals:
Our objectives are clear. First, we’re destroying Iran’s missile capabilities … and their capacity to produce brand new ones — pretty good ones they make. Second, we’re annihilating their navy … Third, we’re ensuring that the world’s number one sponsor of terror can never obtain a nuclear weapon … And finally, we’re ensuring that the Iranian regime cannot continue to arm, fund, and direct terrorist armies outside of their borders.
On the War Department’s website, Secretary Pete Hegseth observes that “the mission of Operation Epic Fury is laser-focused: Destroy Iranian offensive missiles, destroy Iranian missile production, destroy their navy and other security infrastructure – and they will never have nuclear weapons.”
Opening the Strait of Hormuz was not an objective because it was already open.
Democrats falsely claimed that Epic Fury violated the War Powers Act. Most also asserted there was no “imminent” threat because Iran was potentially several months away from developing a nuclear weapon, and that a nuclear Iran was not worth going to war over. It is surreal that critics of U.S. intelligence capabilities insisted that an existential decision be delayed without any margin for error. That peril was underscored when Iran launched ballistic missiles with double the range previously known.
The U.S. and Israel achieved strong tactical victories, including the near-complete destruction of Iran’s navies, air force, and air defense systems. They killed Iran’s leaders and destroyed or buried most of its missiles, drones, and military industrial base. Taking into account thousands of missiles and drones Iran launched against its neighbors, little of its pre-war military might remains.
As the war raged, Iran used mines, gunboats, and missiles to close the Strait of Hormuz. That impelled Trump to seek an off-ramp after just 38 days, when he agreed to suspend attacks in exchange for the “COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz.” Iran never re-opened the Strait and continued to lob missiles and drones at U.S. bases, Israel, and its Arab neighbors, and through Hezbollah, further attacked Israel. Nonetheless, with minor exceptions, the U.S. held its fire, though it blockaded Iranian ports, costing the Islamic Republic up to $500 million each day.
Ceding leverage, Trump repeatedly claimed that a deal was just days away that would ensure that Iran would never get a nuclear weapon, or not for at least 20 years, or maybe at least 10 years. He said if no deal was reached, he would turn Iran into a pile of rubble, and insisted that the Strait of Hormuz be opened without any tolls, or with tolls, or with U.S. tolls. But, he warned that if Oman charged tolls, “we’ll have to blow them up.”
Trump’s impetuousness, concern about gasoline prices and his reputation, fixation on making a deal – even a terrible deal – and contrasting hyperbolic threats overrode his judgement. It’s terrifying that Americans make decisions about nuclear war and regional destruction based on modest short-term price spikes.
Iran cleverly used Hezbollah to drive a wedge between Trump and Israel. At the G7 summit in France, Trump criticized Israel for defending itself and said that Syria should “take care” of Hezbollah because “they’d do a better job.”
Measured against Trump’s goals, Iran won. It bested Trump at public relations, negotiations and tactics, losing only in the military sphere. With hundreds of billions of dollars at its disposal, it will soon recover. After taking that money, Iran will quietly ignore the restrictions, secure in the knowledge that it can outlast economic sanctions and that it is unlikely to confront a military challenge that its new weapons won’t help it defeat.
The U.S. and Israel were on the verge of complete victory. If Trump had stayed the course, he likely would have achieved the unconditional surrender he coveted. Instead, he choked. Great leaders like George Washington and Winston Churchill are driven by their resilience and determination – not by public opinion polls and Nobel Peace Prizes.