Number Who Say U.S. in Recession Up 8 Points

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• Two in five registered voters (39%) say the country is currently in a recession.
  • That is up 8 points from 2 weeks ago, and up 3 points from a month ago.
  • More than half (55%) of Democrats say the U.S. is in a recession, while 22% disagree.
  • Republicans are more optimistic, with only 25% saying the country is in a recession and 47% disagreeing.
• Of those voters who say the U.S. is in a recession, 25% believe it will end over the next six months.
  • That’s down 2 points from the 27% who said the same two weeks ago.
  • Fifty-seven percent (57%) say the recession will not end within the next six months.
  • Among Democrats, 63% also say the recession will not end so soon. But 32% of Republicans say it will end within six months.
• Of voters who say the U.S. is not in a recession, 20% believe it will enter a recession over the next six months.
  • That is down 5 points from 2 weeks when 25% said the U.S. will enter a recession.
  • Most of these voters (62%) say a recession will not begin over the next 6 months.
  • Republicans in this group are more optimistic. By a margin of 76% to 12%, most say the U.S. will not enter a recession within 6 months.
  • Of the Democrats who say the U.S. is not currently in a recession, 44% say the U.S. will enter one in the next 6 months, while 26% say it will not.

This data is from a Napolitan News Service survey of 1,000 Registered Voters conducted online by Scott Rasmussen, November 3-4, 2025. RMG Research, Inc., conducted the field work for the survey. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.1.