Is the US in a Recession? 38% Say It Is

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• Nearly 4 in 10 registered voters (38%) say the country is currently in a recession, up 3 points from 2 weeks ago and a month ago.
  • Thirty-five percent (35%) say the U.S. is not in a recession, down 3 points from 2 weeks ago.
  • One quarter (27%) are Not Sure.
  • Half of Democrats (49%) say the U.S. is in a recession, while only 27% disagree, and 24% are Not Sure.
  • Twenty-seven percent (27%) of Republicans say the country is in a recession, but 47% disagree, and 25% are Not Sure.
• Among the 38% who say the U.S. is in a recession, 65% say it will not end in the next 6 months.
  • Conversely, among the 35% of voters who say we are not in a recession, 51% say the U.S. will not enter a recession in the next 6 months.
  • As always, the party in power is more optimistic.

See also: Opinions on the Economy and Personal Finances.

This data is from a Napolitan News Service survey of 1,000 Registered Voters conducted online by Scott Rasmussen, May 26-27, 2026. RMG Research, Inc., conducted the field work for the survey. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.1.