Generic Ballot July 2025: Republicans 46% Democrats 42%

If the election were held today, 46% of voters would vote for the Republican candidate from their Congressional District and 42% would vote for the Democrat.

When leaners are included, a Napolitan News survey found that the numbers are 49% Republican and 45% Democrat.
The Republicans held an advantage on the Generic Ballot when the year began, but Democrats surged ahead after Trump’s tariff plan was announced.
In June, the GOP had a larger lead, 52% to 44%.

The most recent data cited is from a Napolitan News Service survey of 2,000 Registered Voters conducted online by Scott Rasmussen July 14-16, 2025. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. and has a margin of error of +/- 2.2.