Generic Ballot: Dem 49%, GOP 45% – Dems More Enthusiastic

​

  • If the election were held today, 47% of registered voters say they would vote for the Democrat from their district, and 42% say they would vote for the Republican. This 5-point edge is down from last month’s 9-point edge.
    • When leaners are included, 49% would vote for the Democrat, and 45% would vote for the Republican.
    • Republicans had the advantage for several months, but the war in Iran has been devastating for Republicans.
    • Among postgraduate voters, Democrats lead by 22 points: 56% to 34%.
    • Similarly, Democrats lead among government employees by a 56% to 28% margin.
  • Forty-four percent (44%) of voters are Very Enthusiastic about voting in the Congressional elections this year.
    • Among those Very Enthusiastic, Democrats lead Republicans 50% to 43%.
    • Those who are Very Enthusiastic are most likely to turn out and cast a ballot.
    • Among voters who prefer Trump-like policies, 52% are Very Enthusiastic, but among those who prefer more traditional Republican policies, just 32% are Very Enthusiastic.
    • Among voters who are at least Somewhat Enthusiastic, 52% would vote for the Democrat, and 47% would vote for the Republican.
  • See the May, April,and March results.

This data is from a Napolitan News Service survey of 1,000 Registered Voters conducted online by Scott Rasmussen, June 3-4, 2026. RMG Research, Inc., conducted the field work for the survey. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.1.