Fueled by Own Team Optimism, Plurality Believes Republicans Will Win House and Senate

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  • A plurality of registered voters (44%) believe the Republicans will win control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the upcoming midterm elections.
    • Two in 5 voters (40%) say that the Democrats will win control.
    • Sixteen percent (16%) are Not Sure.
    • Despite being asked “regardless of who you want to win,” over 70% of each party picked their own team for House and Senate.
  • In a recent Morning Briefing, Scott Rasmussen issued both optimism and caution for Republicans. Last week, the economic numbers saw significant improvement. However, Rasmussen stated, “If this is a ceiling and we can’t go above it, Democrats are very likely to take the house…”
  • Almost half (49%) of voters also believe the Republicans will win control of the U.S. Senate in the upcoming midterm elections.
    • Just a third (33%) say that the Democrats will win control.
    • Eighteen percent (18%) are Not Sure.
  • A majority of voters (73%) know that Republicans currently have majority control of the House of Representatives.
    • Most Republicans (84%) know that their party controls the Senate.
    • By a margin of 63% to 28%, Democratic voters also know Republicans control the House.
    • Fifty-eight percent (58%) of voters aged 18 to 34 know who currently controls the House.
    • In December 2023, 59% of all voters knew that Republicans controlled the House.
  • Seven in 10 voters (71%) know that the Republican party currently has majority control of the U.S. Senate.
    • A large majority of Republicans (83%) know that their party controls the Senate.
    • By a margin of 60% to 34%, Democratic voters know Republicans have majority control in the Senate.
    • In December 2023, about half (52%) of voters were aware that Democrats controlled the Senate.

This data is from a Napolitan News Service survey of 1,000 Registered Voters conducted online by Scott Rasmussen, February 9-10, 2026. RMG Research, Inc., conducted the field work for the survey. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.1.