Expectations of Success in Iran Hit Low as Voters Expect a Long Stay

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• Forty-four percent (44%) of voters now consider it at least Somewhat Likely that the attacks in Iran will lead to a regime change.
  • That number is down 11 points from 55% the day the attacks began.
  • Just 16% consider a successful regime change Very Likely.
  • Thirty-nine percent (39%) say regime change is Not Likely, which is up 12 points from 2 weeks ago.
• Meanwhile among those who say success is likely, just 15% think the goal will be accomplished in a few weeks, down 10 points from our last survey.
  • Twenty-eight percent (28%) now say it will take at least a year, up 4 points.
  • A plurality (39%) say we will be there a few more months.
• Support for the attacks has remained virtually unchanged since day 1: it is now at 39%, while a majority (52%) oppose them.
  • These numbers include 20% who Strongly Favor the attacks while 36% Strongly Oppose them.
• Trump’s handling of the situation in Iran as a whole draws nearly identical results; 40% approve while 54% disapprove.
  • Again, strong disapproval heavily outweights strong support. One in 5 (20%) Strongly Support Trump’s handling of the situation in Iran, but 42% Strongly Disapprove of it.

This data is from a Napolitan News Service survey of 1,000 Registered Voters conducted online by Scott Rasmussen, March 25-26, 2026. RMG Research, Inc., conducted the field work for the survey. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.1.