EU Leaders Gather in Belgium, Look to Middle East Situation
BRUSSELS — Foreign ministers from across the European Union gathered in Belgium on Monday for their regularly scheduled Foreign Affairs Council. The agenda included items ranging from Ukraine to democratic backsliding in Georgia. But when the ministers arrived everyone wanted to talk about the weekend news: U.S. strikes against Iran.
Ministers are focused on “a diplomatic solution,” said Kaja Kallas, the European Union’s foreign affairs chief. “Concerns of retaliation and this war escalating are huge.” She specifically cited fears that Iran will attempt to close the strait of Hormuz, a vital trade route where more than a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes by ship each day. This, Kallas said, “would be extremely dangerous and not good for anybody.”
Europe’s top diplomats face a political conundrum. They don’t like Iran, but they also don’t want war in the Middle East, higher oil prices, blocked trade routes, or a political victory for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (with whom their patience has mostly dissolved).
European voters largely disapprove of Netanyahu’s war in Gaza, making it difficult for European political leaders to endorse a U.S. military operation that aligns with his goals and will likely strengthen his political staying power.
Thus, with a mixture of money and morals on their minds, European foreign ministers – one after the other – called for de-escalation, restraint on all sides, and diplomatic talks. Kallas and ministers from France, Germany, and the United Kingdom met with Iran’s foreign minister last Friday in hopes of paving a path to peace talks between Iran and the U.S.
America’s weekend strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities enraged the Islamic Republic, but European leaders warned Iran not to retaliate, arguing that diplomacy is still the best way forward for all parties. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said Europe stands ready to mediate between Iran and the U.S. during talks.
Despite Kallas’ efforts to project unity, not all ministers are singing in the same key. Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsy said of Israel’s initial strikes against Iran, “I see that this was a reasonable reaction from the state of Israel towards a possible threat of a nuclear bomb … I have a great deal of understanding for, let’s say, military action aimed at preventing the production of a nuclear bomb in the region.”
Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares stayed focused on hunger in Gaza rather than bombs in Iran. He said Europe needs to take action rather than simply denounce Israel’s refusal to let significant aid into Gaza. He called for “immediate” suspension of the association agreement with Israel, an embargo on arms sales by the EU, and individual sanctions against all those who want to thwart the two-state solution.
Albares’ remarks were a reminder that for many Europeans, Israeli strikes against Iran do not exist in isolation from Israel’s war in Gaza.
A handful of foreign ministers, though in favor of de-escalation between the U.S. and Iran, were more willing to openly admit that the idea of a weakened Iranian nuclear program is not something they will lose sleep over.
Despite these varied approaches, each minister was clear that Russia must not get involved. Europe is watching the Kremlin carefully. To close the strait of Hormuz, Iran would almost certainly have to install underwater mines that explode when they detect passing traffic, analysts say. Russian assistance might enhance Iran’s chances of successfully laying mines.
If Iran attempts to mine the strait, the U.S. may deploy its navy to thwart those efforts. This is just one example of how the U.S. could be pulled further into the conflict, a dangerous prospect if Russian-manned submarines enter the equation. (Though Putin has offered words of support to Iran, he has not indicated any intentions to directly intervene so far.)
The situation is fraught with uncertainty and unknown dangers, and though many of Europe’s foreign ministers were clearly frustrated with what they believe was a rash and irresponsible decision by the United States, none of them seemed keen on rebuking President Trump – especially in the runup to this week’s NATO summit in The Hague, Netherlands, where leaders hope to solidify America’s commitment to the defense alliance.
With their own security interests in the balance, European leaders know it’s not a good week to lecture Trump.
RealClearPolitics asked Italy’s Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani what he thought of Trump leaving the door open to the idea of regime change in Iran. “We just need the U.S. and Iran to have talks,” he said.