66% Say Swing States Have Stayed Mostly the Same for 50 Years

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In the current political environment, rife with unpopular redistricting, there are understandable grumbles for a change to our Electoral College system. However, the current discussion leaves out an essential aspect that influences everything:

• Two thirds (66%) of voters say that at least most of swing states have stayed the same over the past 50 years.
  • This includes 57% who say most have stayed the same and 9% who have said they’ve all stayed the same.
  • Seventy percent (70%) of Republicans say swing states have remained generally the same, along with 64% of Democrats.
• However, the reality is much different.*
  • In 1976, Jimmy Carter narrowly achieved victory by claiming 4 swing states by less than a percentage point. The states? Oregon, Ohio, Maine, and Iowa.
  • California, Illinois, and Virginia were decided by less than 2 points, and went Republican that year.
• In a long-term perspective, even amidst redistricting wars, the Electoral College is not nearly as static as politicians present it to be.

* Note that in the linked map, Republican states are counted blue and Democratic states Red.

This data is from a Napolitan News Service survey of 1,000 Registered Voters conducted online by Scott Rasmussen, April 22-23, 2026. RMG Research, Inc., conducted the field work for the survey. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.1.