36% Say U.S. Is in a Recession

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• More than a third (36%) of voters say the country is currently in a recession, up 5 points from 2 weeks ago.
  • Thirty-seven percent (37%) say the U.S. is not in a recession, down 4 points from early March.
  • A plurality of Democrats (48%) say the U.S. is in a recession, while only 24% disagree.
  • Almost a quarter (23%) of Republicans say the country is in a recession, but 54% disagree.
• Among the 36% who say the U.S. is in a recession, 58% say it will not end in the next 6 months.
  • Conversely, among the 37% of voters who say we are not in a recession, 53% say the U.S. will not enter a recession in the next 6 months.
  • As always, the party in power is more optimistic.

This data is from a Napolitan News Service survey of 1,000 Registered Voters conducted online by Scott Rasmussen, March 16-17, 2026. RMG Research, Inc., conducted the field work for the survey. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.1.